Millions of dollars poured into prediction markets on election night, betting on Democratic control of Congress and Texas governor's race
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and as a result are not substitutes for political polls. A little following 11 p.m. on election night, over $1.4 million was traded on Kalshi that Republicans would not secure control of…
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On the geopolitical risk front, Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and as a result are not substitutes for political polls, according to CNBC Top News. A little following 11 p.m. on election night, over $1.4 million was traded on Kalshi that Republicans would not secure control of the House of Representatives.
Key points
- Last week, Polymarket's two exchanges reported close to $700 million in volume for midterm contracts.
- Abbott eventually lost to Democrat Gina Hinojosa by upwards of 700,000 votes, according to the Associated Press.
- While prediction markets broadly anticipated Democratic control of Congress, the blue tsunami is projected to bite the industry in other ways.
- Volume on midterm contracts pales in comparison with sports volume, which stays larger than all other categories.
Inside the Geopolitical risk story
Abbott eventually lost to Democrat Gina Hinojosa by upwards of 700,000 votes, according to the Associated Press. Even so, volume on midterm contracts pales in comparison with sports volume, which stays larger than all other categories. Last week, Polymarket's two exchanges reported close to $700 million in volume for midterm contracts.
While prediction markets broadly anticipated Democratic control of Congress, the blue tsunami is projected to bite the industry in other ways.
Why traders are watching geopolitical risk
Geopolitical shocks usually push investors toward safe havens such as gold, the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, while risk assets and commodity-sensitive currencies can come under pressure.
Events that threaten supply routes or energy production can also lift oil prices, adding to inflation risks for central banks.
Market reaction and data
Crypto prices at the time of writing, from Binance spot data (2026-11-09 18:13 UTC):
| Asset | Last price (USDT) | 24h change | 24h high | 24h low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 74,804.00 | -1.41% | 75,970.00 | 73,510.00 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,127.65 | -4.74% | 2,237.35 | 2,060.00 |
| Cardano (ADA) | 0.178 | -0.95% | 0.1833 | 0.1714 |
| Solana (SOL) | 86.66 | -3.00% | 90.01 | 85.02 |
What to watch next for geopolitical risk
Markets will watch for official responses, any escalation or de-escalation, and moves in oil, gold and safe-haven currencies.
Key scheduled releases on the economic calendar:
- USD Core CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- USD CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.6%
- GBP GDP m/m on Thu Nov 12, 07:00 UTC, forecast 0.0%, previous 0.1%
- USD Core PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%
- USD PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.4%, previous 1.3%
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FAQ
What is the latest geopolitical risk news?
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and as a result are not substitutes for political polls.
How do geopolitical events affect markets?
Uncertainty tends to lift safe-haven assets like gold, the dollar and the yen, and can weigh on stocks and on currencies linked to risk appetite.
Where does this information come from?
This report is based on coverage from CNBC Top News, checked against market data where available. It is a summary for information only and not investment advice.
Risk warning: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Trading forex, CFDs, stocks and crypto carries a high risk of losing money. Prices move fast – check live quotes before you trade.
