Gold price: Gold ticks higher on softer oil, but Fed’s 80% December hike odds cap gain
Gold trades through the oil, inflation and rates channel not as a safe haven in this war. As softer oil prices eased some of the inflation fears that have weighed on bullion, gold edged higher in Asian trade on Monday, building on a weekly gain…
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On the gold price front, gold trades through the oil, inflation and rates channel not as a safe haven in this war, according to investingLive. As softer oil prices eased some of the inflation fears that have weighed on bullion, gold edged higher in Asian trade on Monday, building on a weekly gain of roughly 5%.
Inside the Gold price story
US CPI this week is the next test for December hike pricing, and so for gold's opportunity cost. Advances were left in check, however, by firming expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise policy rates again in December following a robust US jobs report. According to CME's FedWatch tool, dealers now see around an 80% probability of a December rate increase, up from roughly 70% before the payrolls release.
Why traders are watching gold price
Expectations for US interest rates sit behind almost every move in the dollar, bond yields and equities. When the outlook for Fed policy changes, traders reprice the whole curve of rate expectations at once.
A more hawkish tone usually supports the dollar and weighs on gold and growth stocks, while a dovish tilt tends to do the opposite. That is why traders read every comment from policymakers closely.
Market reaction and data
On the currency side, the latest ECB daily reference rates (2026-11-06) show EUR/USD 1.1165, GBP/USD 1.3385, AUD/USD 0.6871, NZD/USD 0.5544, USD/JPY 158.33, USD/CHF 0.8189, USD/CAD 1.4066, USD/CNY 6.6713. These are reference fixes, not live quotes.
What to watch next for gold price
Traders will focus on upcoming comments from Fed officials, the next inflation and labour-market releases, and pricing in rate futures for clues about the timing of the next policy move.
Key scheduled releases on the economic calendar:
- USD Core CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- USD CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.6%
- GBP GDP m/m on Thu Nov 12, 07:00 UTC, forecast 0.0%, previous 0.1%
- USD Core PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%
- USD PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.4%, previous 1.3%
Follow every update in our Top 10 Forex News Today, read Inflation data: China October inflation preview: CPI seen near 0.8%, PPI above 5% or see all of today's top market news.
FAQ
What is the latest gold price news?
Gold trades through the oil, inflation and rates channel not as a safe haven in this war.
How do Fed rate decisions affect forex markets?
Higher US rates tend to attract capital into dollar assets and strengthen the greenback, while lower rates or dovish guidance usually weaken it against other major currencies.
Where does this information come from?
This report is based on coverage from investingLive, checked against market data where available. It is a summary for information only and not investment advice.
Risk warning: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Trading forex, CFDs, stocks and crypto carries a high risk of losing money. Prices move fast – check live quotes before you trade.
