ICYMI: Goldman cuts gold forecasts to $4,150 for 2026, $4,800 for 2027 as hawkish Fed bites
With December Fed hike odds near 80%, that holds a lid on near-term rallies. Current buying is estimated at about 85 tonnes.Central bank demand drives most of the roughly 15% upside Goldman forecasts by end-2027.A more hawkish Fed path could leave gold near $4,660 by…
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On the gold price front, With December Fed hike odds near 80%, that holds a lid on near-term rallies, according to investingLive. Current buying is estimated at about 85 tonnes.Central bank demand drives most of the roughly 15% upside Goldman forecasts by end-2027.A more hawkish Fed path could leave gold near $4,660 by end-2027, whereas fiscal concerns could push it above the base case.Fed easing moves, expected from late 2027, are seen as a further source of support.
Key points
- Goldman noted a further Fed hike in March 2027.
- Goldman anticipates further support once the Fed begins cutting rates, which its forecasters see starting in late 2027 and continuing into early 2028.
- The bank's strategists, in a note dated November 5, noted the revisions assume the Fed's tighter stance.
- It projects central banks to buy about 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027.
- Gold picked up roughly 64% in 2025, its best year since 1979, and peaked near $5,600 in January before dropping to roughly $4,070 by November 6.
Inside the Gold price story
The bank's strategists, in a note dated November 5, noted the revisions assume the Fed's tighter stance, including an expected tightening move in December, will limit demand for gold as a hedge against currency debasement and wider policy risk. Goldman compared the current backdrop with 2022, when heavy central bank buying underpinned prices but advancing borrowing costs held back investment demand. It projects central banks to buy about 60 tonnes a month through 2026 and 2027, comfortably above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes.
Goldman anticipates further support once the Fed begins cutting rates, which its forecasters see starting in late 2027 and continuing into early 2028. Goldman noted a further Fed hike in March 2027, delayed easing or a higher projected terminal rate could leave gold at roughly $4,660 by end-2027, below its base case on the risks.
Gold picked up roughly 64% in 2025, its best year since 1979, and peaked near $5,600 in January before dropping to roughly $4,070 by November 6, almost 27% below that high.
Why traders are watching gold price
Expectations for US interest rates sit behind almost every move in the dollar, bond yields and equities. When the outlook for Fed policy changes, traders reprice the whole curve of rate expectations at once.
A more hawkish tone usually supports the dollar and weighs on gold and growth stocks, while a dovish tilt tends to do the opposite. That is why traders read every comment from policymakers closely.
Market reaction and data
Crypto prices at the time of writing, from Binance spot data (2026-11-09 02:10 UTC):
| Asset | Last price (USDT) | 24h change | 24h high | 24h low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 75,236.00 | -0.66% | 76,200.00 | 73,510.00 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,145.14 | -3.95% | 2,246.00 | 2,060.00 |
On the currency side, the latest ECB daily reference rates (2026-11-06) show EUR/USD 1.1165, GBP/USD 1.3385, AUD/USD 0.6871, NZD/USD 0.5544, USD/JPY 158.33, USD/CHF 0.8189, USD/CAD 1.4066, USD/CNY 6.6713. These are reference fixes, not live quotes.
What to watch next for gold price
Traders will focus on upcoming comments from Fed officials, the next inflation and labour-market releases, and pricing in rate futures for clues about the timing of the next policy move.
Key scheduled releases on the economic calendar:
- USD Core CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- USD CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.6%
- GBP GDP m/m on Thu Nov 12, 07:00 UTC, forecast 0.0%, previous 0.1%
- USD Core PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%
- USD PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.4%, previous 1.3%
Follow every update in our Top 10 Forex News Today, read Inflation data: China October 2026 CPI +0.7% y/y (expected +0.8%, prior +0.9%) or see all of today's top market news.
FAQ
What is the latest gold price news?
With December Fed hike odds near 80%, that holds a lid on near-term rallies.
How do Fed rate decisions affect forex markets?
Higher US rates tend to attract capital into dollar assets and strengthen the greenback, while lower rates or dovish guidance usually weaken it against other major currencies.
Where does this information come from?
This report is based on coverage from investingLive, checked against market data where available. It is a summary for information only and not investment advice.
Risk warning: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Trading forex, CFDs, stocks and crypto carries a high risk of losing money. Prices move fast – check live quotes before you trade.
