Non-farm payrolls beat estimates at 165K, lifting the US dollar

Non-farm payrolls in the United States rose 165K in October, beating the 65K expected, according to investingLive's Americas market news wrap. The stronger-than-forecast report helped lift the US dollar on Friday, while a soft Canadian jobs print added to questions about further tightening in Canada.

Key points

• US October non-farm payrolls came in at +165K against +65K expected, according to investingLive.
• Canada's October employment change was -4.7K versus a 13.6K estimate, with the unemployment rate at 6.7%.
• The preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was 51.0, against 48.0 expected.
• Fed official Daly said the jobs report is good news, reinforcing a hawkish reading of the data.
• Gold fell $22 to $4065, US 10-year yields dipped 2.4 bps to 4.86%, and WTI crude was flat at $90.50.

Non-farm payrolls: what happened

The headline US figure was the main event of the session. Payrolls rose 165K in October, well above the 65K consensus cited by investingLive. The wrap described the report as strong across the board, which is why the dollar gained ground once the numbers were out.

Canada told a different story. Employment changed by -4.7K in October, compared with a 13.6K estimate, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%. According to investingLive, economists are now questioning whether another rate hike this year is wise after the second soft jobs report in a row.

Consumer sentiment also surprised to the upside. The preliminary University of Michigan reading for November came in at 51.0, compared with 48.0 expected. Fed official Daly's remark that the jobs report is good news, as relayed by investingLive, added to the hawkish tone around the release.

Outside the data calendar, investingLive noted that BOJ Governor Ueda said consumer prices are now around 3% and expected to rise further into early next year. Geopolitics also featured. Reports said Iran had responded positively to the latest mediator proposal and was reviewing proposals to curb its nuclear program, while US President Trump said the US was talking to Iran and doing very well. Oil did not react strongly, as investingLive said the diplomacy effort appeared largely priced in and that markets would need something closer to concrete progress.

In equities, the main focus was on technology, memory and neocloud names. A report that Microsoft was winding down its Oracle deal to scale back AI cloud capacity, as described by investingLive, briefly weighed on the group. Buyers reportedly held the line, and the S&P 500 finished up 0.3%. Separately, investingLive reported that OpenAI closed a funding round of $11 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion after the close. The Financial Times, as cited by investingLive, said Anthropic continues to plan an IPO this month, aiming to raise $80-100 billion at a $1.25-1.75 trillion valuation.

Why it matters for traders

Employment data is closely watched because it shapes expectations for central bank policy. A payrolls figure that beats forecasts by a wide margin typically supports the view that the economy is resilient, which can keep interest rate expectations firmer and support the currency. That is consistent with the dollar's gains described in the wrap.

The divergence with Canada is the other key point. A weak Canadian report, with employment falling and unemployment rising, reduces the case for further tightening there. Traders often compare these two labor markets when weighing pairs such as USD/CAD, so the contrast in the data is relevant beyond the US release itself.

Gold and bond yields moved in a direction consistent with firmer US rate expectations, with gold lower and the 10-year yield slightly down on the session. Oil stayed flat, suggesting that the Iran headlines were not enough to shift crude pricing on the day.

Market reaction and data

The table below lists the cross-asset levels reported by investingLive during the Friday wrap.

The ECB daily reference rates for 2026-11-06 provide a reference point for major currency pairs. These are daily fixes, not live quotes, so they should not be read as the prices at the time of the payrolls release.

What to watch next

• Earnings from CoreWeave are due on Tuesday and from Nebius on Thursday, according to investingLive, keeping the AI infrastructure theme in focus.
• Anthropic's planned IPO this month could shape sentiment in tech and AI names if it proceeds as reported.
• Iran diplomacy remains a headline risk for oil, with markets looking for more concrete steps than the current positive reports.
• New Zealand's parliamentary elections were scheduled for Friday at 21:45 UTC, a high-impact event that traders tracked alongside the US data.

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FAQ

Why did the non-farm payrolls report move the dollar?

The October payrolls figure of 165K was well above the 65K expected, which investingLive described as a strong report across the board. Stronger labor data tends to support the dollar because it can firm expectations for interest rates.

How did Canada's jobs data compare?

Canada's October employment change was -4.7K against a 13.6K estimate, with unemployment at 6.7%. According to investingLive, economists are now questioning whether another rate hike this year is wise.

Are the ECB rates in this article live prices?

No. The ECB reference rates cited are daily fixes for 2026-11-06 and are not live quotes. Traders should check real-time sources for current pricing.