Inflation data: US CPI preview: Wall Street sees cooler inflation but the Fed may not blink
In parallel, core inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2% m/m - down from 0.3% in the month before. Yet even so, the latter is not quite buying the idea that cooler inflation will be enough to derail another Fed tightening move in December.
In this article
In the latest inflation data update, in parallel, core inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2% m/m - down from 0.3% in the month before, according to investingLive. Yet even so, the latter is not quite buying the idea that cooler inflation will be enough to derail another Fed tightening move in December.
Key points
- Fed funds futures are pricing in roughly an 84% probability of a 25 bps tightening move for December.
- The BLS will not publish the usual annual inflation comparisons due to missing October 2025 data during last year's government shutdown.
- And for the bigger picture, the real question today is not just whether inflation pressures are showing signs of cooling.
What happened: Inflation data
Fed funds futures are pricing in roughly an 84% probability of a 25 bps tightening move for December, suggesting that market players are hardly expecting today's inflation report to throw the Fed off course. Even an inflation report that leaves the Fed on track to hike rates might not necessarily be enough to give dollar bulls another reason to celebrate in other words. The BLS will not publish the usual annual inflation comparisons due to missing October 2025 data during last year's government shutdown.
And for the bigger picture, the real question today is not just whether inflation pressures are showing signs of cooling.
Why inflation data matters for traders
Inflation figures decide how long central banks keep interest rates high. Hotter-than-expected readings usually lift bond yields and the local currency, while softer data raise hopes of rate cuts.
Price data feed straight into central-bank decisions, which makes them some of the most market-moving releases on the calendar for forex, bonds and stocks.
Market reaction and data
Crypto prices at the time of writing, from Binance spot data (2026-11-10 06:11 UTC):
| Asset | Last price (USDT) | 24h change | 24h high | 24h low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 74,724.00 | 0.23% | 75,568.18 | 73,750.00 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 2,120.64 | -0.48% | 2,151.90 | 2,083.10 |
On the currency side, the latest ECB daily reference rates (2026-11-09) show EUR/USD 1.1193, GBP/USD 1.3416, AUD/USD 0.6894, NZD/USD 0.5613, USD/JPY 157.95, USD/CHF 0.8187, USD/CAD 1.4103, USD/CNY 6.6728. These are reference fixes, not live quotes.
What to watch next for inflation data
Next in focus are the coming inflation releases, central-bank reaction to them and changes in market pricing for future rate moves.
Key scheduled releases on the economic calendar:
- USD Core CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
- USD CPI m/m on Tue Nov 10, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.6%
- GBP GDP m/m on Thu Nov 12, 07:00 UTC, forecast 0.0%, previous 0.1%
- USD Core PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.3%, previous 0.7%
- USD PPI m/m on Fri Nov 13, 13:30 UTC, forecast 0.4%, previous 1.3%
Follow every update in our Top 10 Forex News Today, read China trade recap: surplus beats $1 trillion as AI boom powers exports, tensions loom or see all of today's top market news.
FAQ
What is the latest inflation data news?
In parallel, core inflation is forecast to ease to 0.2% m/m - down from 0.3% in the month before.
Why do inflation numbers move markets?
Inflation data change expectations for central-bank interest rates, and rate expectations drive currencies, bond yields and stock valuations.
Where does this information come from?
This report is based on coverage from investingLive, checked against market data where available. It is a summary for information only and not investment advice.
Risk warning: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Trading forex, CFDs, stocks and crypto carries a high risk of losing money. Prices move fast – check live quotes before you trade.
